Since this is season of electoral projections, thought why not me? Ok , actually I had done this exercise in Nov. I am not a psephologist, have no knowledge of statistical methods of predicting election outcomes. These projections are based on people I interacted with from various locations across India, between Sept to Nov. Also these are projections for NDA which in Nov only meant BJP+ShivSena+Akali Dal.Interestingly my optimistic projections totalled to 272. That was just a coincidence :).
State | Total Seats | Likely | Optimistic increment |
Uttar Pradesh | 80 | 35 | 10 |
Maharashtra | 48 | 32 | 3 |
Andhra Pradesh | 42 | 2 | 2 |
West Bengal | 42 | 1 | 2 |
Bihar | 40 | 20 | 5 |
Tamil Nadu | 39 | 2 | 2 |
Madhya Pradesh | 29 | 27 | |
Karnataka | 28 | 15 | 3 |
Gujarat | 26 | 24 | |
Rajasthan | 25 | 23 | |
Orissa | 21 | 2 | 1 |
Kerala | 20 | 1 | |
Assam | 14 | 4 | 2 |
Jharkhand | 14 | 9 | 2 |
Punjab | 13 | 8 | 2 |
Chhattisgarh | 11 | 8 | 2 |
Haryana | 10 | 5 | 2 |
Jammu and Kashmir | 6 | 2 | |
Uttarakhand | 5 | 3 | 1 |
Himachal Pradesh | 4 | 2 | |
Arunachal Pradesh | 2 | ||
Goa | 2 | 2 | |
Manipur | 2 | ||
Meghalaya | 2 | ||
Tripura | 2 | ||
Mizoram | 1 | ||
Nagaland | 1 | ||
Sikkim | 1 | ||
Delhi | 7 | 5 | |
Andaman and Nicobar Islands | 1 | ||
Chandigarh | 1 | ||
Dadra and Nagar Haveli | 1 | 1 | |
Daman and Diu | 1 | ||
Lakshadweep | 1 | ||
Pondicherry | 1 | ||
Total | 543 | 233 | 39 |
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